The 13x that wasn't, and the first free pilot slots Hi, Reid here.

The 13x that wasn't, and the first free pilot slots

Hi, Reid here. Three things from this week.

1. The most useful number I got this week was a smaller one.

We wanted to know which signals actually find opportunities early. So we went back to four dates between Oct 2023 and Apr 2025, replayed each signal using only the data visible that day, and checked whether a new product with 10,000+ users appeared for that demand within 12 months (re-uploads and clones don't count).

First pass: "Abandoned Users" looked 13x better than random, "Leader Went Bad" 15x. Too good to be true, and it was. Those signals naturally pick big demands, and big demands get new products far more often: nearly 30% of demands with 1M+ users saw a new product within a year, versus 0.5% of those under 10,000.

Compared against demands of the same size, it fell to about 2x. Split by finer size bands, an independent AI reviewer (a separate Claude instance) put it at roughly 1.4–1.6x. That's in-sample, so likely still optimistic. That's the only version I'll quote.

What you can take from it: when a method claims a hit rate, ask "compared to what?" One control group took 13x down to about 2x; finer size bands, to 1.4–1.6x.

2. This week's opportunity (Oct 7 data): a login-free SEO page checker

SEOquake has been the default for years. Its redesign ties you to an account, it had a recent breakdown, and bad reviews turn right there. It also misses X-Robots-Tag. The catch: Detailed SEO Extension (4.91 stars) already caught many of those users. A test, not a sure thing. (Data: Chrome-Stats, processed by us.)

3. We opened the first pilot slots

Our own developer account only has 3 store slots, and the method needs more real launches. So, free while we test:

• Verdict report: bring a direction, get a written verdict and the reasons. 1 a day.
• Free build: claim an opportunity (or bring your own), we build it to store launch from your own developer account. 1 a week.

In order of confirmation; after applying you can see your place in the queue: https://numberandreason.com/?src=en-nl#join

Coming up

Our three extensions hit day 28 on Oct 26–27. Their success criteria were written before launch, and I'll reconcile them as written, hits and misses. Sunday brings the weekly picks.

Reply and tell me: what's the last thing you decided to build, and what made you sure?

Reid